Am Donnerstag Morgen kommt es am Grenzkontrollpunkt Erez zu einem schweren Zwischenfall, der möglicherweise das Ende möglicher Waffenruhen im Gazastreifen bedeuten könnte. In einer gemeinsam von Fatah und Islamic Jihad durchgeführten Selbstmordaktion hatte ein Jabalia-Resident einen mit annähernd 4500 Kilo Sprengstoff beladenen truck versucht auf die israelische Seite zu bringen, war jedoch wohl durch einen technischen defekt bereits auf der palästinensischen Seite zur Explosion gekommen. Kurz zuvor hatten begleitende Einheiten den crossing mit Granaten und Projektilen beschossen. Im Anschluß attackierten israelsiche Kampflugzeuge die mutmaßlichen Mittäterfahrzeuge. Opferberichte sind noch uneinheitlich: Auf israelischer Seite keine Verletzten, auf palästinensischer Seite der Attentäter und mutmaßlich einen unbeteiligten Zivilisten. Bei einer unabhängigen israelischen Eskalation wird in der Zone Juhor ad-Dik ein 62-jähriger Landwirt bei Kämpfen mit DFLP-Milizen erschossen. Eine zuvor aus Ägypten zurück kehrende Hamas-Delegation hatte vom Fehlschlag der Verhandlungen berichtet. Ob dies eine endgültige Antwort darstellt muß abgewartet werden. Am Morgen verstirbt zudem ein letzten Monat durch israelisches Feuer verletzter Jugendlicher. Die Hamas meldet einen erschossenen Gunman am Mittwoch ohne nähere confirmation. Auf israelischer Seite wird ein Soldat am Zikkim-Crossing zur eine Mörsergranate verletzt. Qassam-Angriffe werden nur vom Mittwoch Morgen gemeldet, so daß die israelische Seite derzeit noch die Ereignisse als nicht relevant für die Verhandlungen über die Waffenruhe hält, wohin gegen die Hamas-Seite sich sehr negativ äußert: Das israelische Angebot soll wohl jegliche Fragestellung der Grenzöffnung ausklammern.
In der Westbank wird bei Tulkarem ein israelischer Soldat von einem Autodieb über den Haufen gefahren, jedoch nur leicht verletzt. Aus Bethelehm wird ein gewisser Erfolg gemeldet: Saudi and Qatari companies signed up with Palestinian partners for $550 million in construction projects Wednesday, kicking off an investors conference meant to help revive the Palestinian economy and support Mideast peace efforts. Viel mehr an Berichten wird es kaum geben und die politischen Reden kann man sich schenken. Das Transparenzproblem ist offensichtlich. So erläutert der britische Minister Alexander die Absicht jährlich 2 Millionen US$ Unterstützung für den Aufbau kleinerer Geschäfte im Gazastreifen und der Westbank zu spenden und legt auch einen "Plan" vor, der eben nicht vorliegt sondern in den Schubladen der Fatah verschwindet. Das bei dem erwähnten Großprojekt die "palestinian partners" ein Drittel der Summe aus Hilfstöpfen finanziert bekommen und sie eigentlich [Al-Masar Leasing & Investment] Stohmänner kuwaitischer Investoren darstellen gehört nun mal eben zum arabischen Geschäft. Verhaftungswellen: 10 Palästinenser durch die IDf und 7 Hamasniks durch die PA. + Israeli defense officials generally respond dismissively to questions about the capabilities of the Palestinian Authority's preventive security forces, but a visit to the Jenin area with the Palestinian forces shows their attitude does not match reality, at least in this sector. Unterdessen meldet sich Najef Hawathmeh, DFLP-Chef zu Wort und behauptet das Aussenministerin Livni den Verhandlungsführern der PA bezüglich der Grenzziehung ein 12%+20%-Paket angeboten habe: 12% der Westbank incl. Ost-Jerusalem gehen in israelischen Besitz über und 20% werden als Sicherheitszone unter israelischer Militärkontrolle verblebein, vornehmlich das Jordantal.
Etwas durcheinander dieser Bericht: The IDF completed a large drill on Wednesday, which was conducted in order to drill its high-ranking officers on a number of scenarios in a number of different arenas. The drill, named 'Avney Esh' (Stones of Fire) is the second of its kind since the Second Lebanon War came to an end, and both the IDF's and the Winograd report's conclusions from the war were implemented in it. Das Manöver galt wohl eher dem Gazastreifen. Trotzdem sorgen die gestern geleakten Annäherungen zwischen Israel und Syrien für manövrellen Flurschaden: Israel, America’s staunchest ally in the Middle East, just became the latest example of a country that has decided it is better to deal with its foes than to ignore them. The announcement that Israel has entered into comprehensive peace talks with Syria is at odds with the course counseled by the Bush administration, which initially opposed such talks in private conversations with Israelis, according to Israeli and American officials. A week ago, President Bush delivered a speech to the Israeli Parliament likening attempts to “negotiate with the terrorists and radicals” to appeasement before World War II. [...] The United States voiced tepid support on Wednesday for indirect peace talks between Israel and Syria, a stance that analysts said reflected U.S. doubts about the chances of success. U.S. officials said they would welcome a peace agreement between the two countries, which have been technically at war since Israel declared independence 60 years ago. But they made clear their focus would be on the Israeli-Palestinian track. [...] Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said Thursday Syria must distance itself from Tehran and cut ties to Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas if wants to conclude a peace treaty with Israel. [...] While the Syrians may have been looking ahead to a future with the Golan, on the Israeli side Golan residents and tour operators just seemed worried. [...] 65 percent of Israelis are against a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights, even if this would bring true peace with Syria, a poll published by the Geo-Cartographic Institute revealed Thursday. [...] Analysts, including former senior Israeli officials, believe there is little prospect of a peace between Israel and Syria without a shift in U.S. policy toward Damascus, possibly once President George W. Bush steps down in January. [...] Two of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's aides, Chief of Staff Dr. Yoram Turbowicz and State Counselor Shalom Turjeman returned to Israel on Wednesday after two days of intensive talks in Istanbul, Turkey. Immediately upon arrival they rushed to inform the prime minister of the talks' results. [...] Knesset majority of 80 representatives??? [...] Jon Alterman: It would be nice to think that Israeli-Syrian negotiations represent a key strategic advance. While I wouldn’t rule out such an advance in the future, this all has the whiff of tactical advantage to me. [...] Ethan Bronner: Israel and Syria announced on Wednesday that they were engaged in negotiations for a comprehensive peace treaty through Turkish mediators, a sign that Israel is hoping to halt the growing influence of Iran, Syria's most important ally, which sponsors the anti-Israel groups Hezbollah and Hamas. [...] The depth of cooperation between Syria and Iran is at times presented to cabinet members, but most of the details do not appear in the media because of the limits imposed by the censor. A security source said that we are now dealing with a more sophisticated adversary from those we have faced in the past, as the chess game against us is taking place on three parallel fronts. [...] The official announcement published yesterday in three capitals - Jerusalem, Damascus and Ankara - about the opening of indirect peace talks between Syria and Israel, under the aegis of Turkey, is a source of great hope but also suspicion. This is not the first time hope has been ignited. At least three prime ministers - Yitzhak Rabin, Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak - drew close, to one extent or another, to an agreement with Syria, but were reluctant at the last minute to sign it. Rabin went so far as to place the conditions for peace as a deposit in the hands of the American administration, a deposit that will now serve as an important legacy for continuing the talks. [...] Israeli authorities have freed early a Syrian detainee serving a 7-year jail sentence on charges of establishing connections with the Hezbollah-led opposition movement and defying Israeli occupation, media reports said Thursday.
Besondere Betrachtung verdient Barak Ravid: The indirect talks between Israel and Syria, made public Wednesday, had their beginning in Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's trip to Turkey in February 2007. Forty-five minutes were allocated for Olmert's meeting in Ankara with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan; it lasted for two and a half hours. Olmert asked Erdogan to mediate between Israel and Syria, potentially paving the way for renewed peace negotiations. An enthusiastic Erdogan took up the challenge at once. Diese Darstellung ist wohl etwas sehr pro-Olmert geschönt. Die Aussage basiert auf: Der frühere israelische Botschafter in Ankara und Staatssekretär im Außenministerium, Alon Liel, sagte unterdessen der türkischen Zeitung „Zaman“: ... Im Februar 2007 habe dann Olmert in Ankara Erdogan um die Wiederaufnahme der Vermittlung gebeten. Von da an habe der außenpolitische Berater Erdogans, Davutoglu, Botschaften der einen Seite an die andere weitergeleitet. Liel sagte der Zeitung Zaman ferner, bei der Vermittlung sei auch die Lieferung von Wasser aus der Türkei an Syrien ein Thema. Zuvor kursierte dieses Vertragspapier als Ergebniss von ständigen Konsultationen. The meetings were carried out with the knowledge of senior officials in the government of former prime minister Ariel Sharon. Wer der "Europäische Mediator" war wurde nie veröffentlicht. Olmert setzt sich hier eher ins gemachte Nest und das er nun den "Initiator" spielen darf und nicht mehr Assad soll ihn wohl am politischen Leben halten. Dabei belegen seine "eigenen" Ideen eher das er kurz vor dem geistigen Zusammenbruch steht: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has proposed in discussions with the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, that a naval blockade be imposed on Iran as one of several ways to pressure Iran into stopping its uranium enrichment program. + Iran's disputed nuclear program has sent a wave of interest in atomic energy across the Middle East, a think tank said Tuesday, warning that it risked setting the scene for a regional nuclear arms race. At least 13 Middle Eastern countries either announced new plans to explore atomic energy or revived pre-existing nuclear programs between February 2006 and January 2007, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, or IISS, said in a report. [...] The standard assumption is that a military attack by the United States or Israel to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons would be disastrous for the attackers, and would threaten the stability of the entire Middle East. Various experts outline doomsday scenarios for such an occurrence, and warn especially of Iran's harsh reaction. Fearing the reaction of the ayatollahs has a paralyzing effect. Even before the first shot has been fired, Iran can credit itself with a success. It created an image of an omnipotent country that will not hesitate to use its power to respond and avenge a military operation against it. This is an impressive psychological achievement. But a new paper, to be published this month in the U.S. by two well-known experts on the subject, sketches a different and more complex picture. The paper is "The Last Resort," written by Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The main point, notes Dr. Clawson in an interview with Haaretz, is that the success or failure of a military attack depends on many variables, and not just the degree of damage the attack would cause. [Da das Buch noch nicht im Internet zur Verfügung steht kann man es auch nicht lesen.]
The police have documents pointing to the possible collusion of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's bureau chief, Shula Zaken, in the bribery scandal, which involves hundreds of thousands of dollars. Haaretz has had access for some time to these key documents, which sparked the most recent investigation against Olmert, but they were under a gag order until Wednesday night. [Derzeit tendiert die Möglichkeit einer direkten Anklage gegen Olmert gegen Null.]
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