Donnerstag, 6. Dezember 2007

Noch eine Iran-Rechenstunde

"What, for example, can be learned from the possibility left open by American intelligence that the Iranians will be in possession of a nuclear weapon by the end of 2009? According to the report, this is a "very unlikely possibility," but just how unlikely?: Is there a 5 percent chance, 10 percent, 20 percent? In the report's world of vague terminology, it is hard to know exactly. The American decision-maker learns from the report how to assess the level of risk and calculate accordingly the urgency of the need for action. The Israeli decision-maker has a different calculation, even if he accepts the basic assumptions of the report. The smaller the country at risk, the larger the margins of security it needs. The 10 percentage points that provides the American with a reason to relax will look like an insufferable risk to the Israeli."
Ich habe mal dieses harmlose Beispiel stellvertretend für die vielen hyperventilierenden Bushsklaven heraus gesucht, denen soeben ihr komplettes Weltbild zusammen gebrochen ist. Der Internet-Terror der Hynkel-Bewegung hat mit Zumüllen weltweiter Internetforen mit dem üblichen c&p-Repertoire, vornehmlich Nazi-Vergleichs spamposts einen kaum dagewesenen Höchststand erreicht. Antisemitische Gegenbewegungen dürften derzeit im Millionenbereich dagegen halten. Man kann derzeit nur warnen Internetforen und blogs zu betreten. Es wimmelt von Lügnern und Abschaum. [Many pro-Israel groups are acknowledging privately, and in some cases publicly, that the new US intelligence assessment on Iran is a significant blow to their efforts to isolate Iran and ease its threat to Israel.] Alleine schon die Bezeichnung "pro-Israel" für diesen Abschaum ist eine Beleidigung für Israel. Leider werden auch Leute wie Rosner von dieser Welle erfaßt. Report: "We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely." Aus genügend HEU für eine Waffe wird eine Waffe. Mit solchen billigen Taschenspielertricks versucht er sich aus der Hilflosigkeit im Umgang mit einer "Überraschung" zu hieven. Mal ein Beispiel: 22.09.07, hier veröffentlicht: "This constant drum beat of conflict is what strikes me which is not helpful and not useful. ... "I expect that there will be no war and that is what we ought to be working for." - US Admiral William Fallon, Central Command. Der Rest der Welt hat es gelesen und verstanden. Die dummdreisten Apokalyptiker von Bushs Gnaden jaulen, weil man ihnen das spielzeug weggenommen hat.

Geht es auch anders? JA! Es geht. Sharon Chadha zum Beispiel. Eben. Wenn man [als pro-Israel] überrascht ist kann man auch einfach mal die Klappe halten, nachdem man die Kernbedeutung eines möglichen Auswegs aus einer Kriegssituation erfaßt hat. Ebenso nüchtern, nachdem es eine Nachrichtensperre von ihr gab, tritt Israels Aussenministerin auf. Sicher, ihre politische Karriere hat einen enormen Makel erlitten. Aber man war gespannt in welchen Tenor sie einstimmen wird. Siehe da, nüchtern und unterstützenswert. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has launched a diplomatic offensive aimed at convincing the world of the need to move forward with sanctions against Iran despite the US intelligence estimate concluding that Iran stopped developing an nuclear weapons program in 2003. ... "While we are speaking, Iran continues to enrich uranium in order to gain the knowledge which it can then use for military purposes," Livni said. "It is clear to everyone that the world cannot allow this. Therefore, there can be no hesitation and there is a need to continue to stiffen the sanctions until there is a complete end to the enrichment activities." [Zum Vergleich die Likudniks Steinitz und Shalom, die den Inhalt des Berichts ablehnen. Wahrscheinlich verwechseln sie den Aufschrei des Hynkel-Movements mit soliden Geheimndienstinformationen.] Etwas anderes fällt auf. Das fette "despite". Die Vorprägung durch die Analyse das der NIE-Bericht negativ zu israelischen Interessen zu sehen sei ist mehr als albern. Solche Kleinigkeiten zeigen uns wieder die mir zum Glück fremde Anziehungskraft von Spiralen, die unweigerlich in einen Krieg führen frißt sich in die kleinsten Winkel der Artikel. Eher nicht verwunderlich ist das der neue Präsident der Kriegsgeilen dies auf seine Art und Weise belegt: French President Nicolas Sarkozy said a new US intelligence report on Iran's nuclear program reinforces international concerns and should not diminish pressure for new sanctions.

News: The Defense Ministry admitted Wednesday that the Committee for Security Facilities approved the construction of the military training base near Ramat Hovav despite the fact that it had not received the environmental impact report for the project. ++++ Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak will meet Thursday to select the head of the Israeli team to hold negotiations with the Palestinian Authority. ++++ Entrepreneurs are planning two built-from-scratch West Bank cities with thousands of homes as well as malls, high-tech call centers and hotels. The two projects, with a total investment of up to $900 million, are part of ambitious plans to revive the Palestinian economy, as Israelis and Palestinians talk peace again after seven years of violence. ++++ Hamas leader and deposed Palestinian prime minister Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday renewed his call for dialogue with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's rival Fatah faction, a week after Abbas relaunched peace talks with Israel. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Abbas formally relaunched a U.S.-sponsored peace process last week and Israel has since stepped up raids on Hamas-controlled Gaza to try to curb rocket fire by militants. ++++ Amid concerns that terrorists were allowed to leave Gaza and travel abroad for training in Iran, Israel has filed a complaint with Cairo after Egypt allowed 1,700 Palestinians to pass through the Rafah Crossing to make the haj pilgrimage to Mecca.

David Ignatius, "The Myth of the mad Mullah": In the entryway of "Persia House," as the CIA's new Iran operations division is known internally, hangs a haunting life-size poster of Hussein, the martyr revered by Iran's Shiite Muslims. The division was created last year to push more aggressively for information about Iran's nuclear program and other secrets. Creating Persia House and spinning off Iran from its old home in the agency's Near East division were part of a broader effort to "plus up" collection of secret information, in the words of one senior official. The CIA made it easy for disgruntled Iranians to send information directly to the agency in cases known as "virtual walk-ins." The National Security Agency and other intelligence organizations made similar drives to steal more of Iran's secrets. + Landis-Blog Comment-Section.

Yohara Baker, "The devastation our disunity has created": This morning, Israeli forces killed yet another three Hamas activists in an air strike on Beit Lahiya in the Gaza Strip. Over the past two weeks, some 30 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli military forces, mostly in the Strip, even as Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak insists his army continues to hold out on wide scale military action there.

Shulamit Aloni, "Israel errs in trying to impose its jewish identity": Jews are a people but not a nation; they are a religious ethnic group or as respected a tribe as may be. The Jewish citizens of Britain, including the orthodox, are British, and that is what is written in their passports and in the British population registry. The same is true of France: The Jews there are French. In Canada, they are Canadians, and in Holland they are Dutch. They uphold their Jewish lives in their communities, since in democratic nations there is freedom of religion and freedom from religion. If these states were to register their Jewish citizens as "Jewish" in the nationality category, we would accuse them of being anti-Semitic.

Finally, Michal Radoshitzky, "Take less, do more"

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