Miki

Report „Al-Fakhora“ 01/07/09 – Vol. „Miki“ - unedited

1. Exceptional Strategic Advancement +++ „This time, Israeli military commanders are leading from the front, not trying to direct the infantry from television screens. This time, the military has clear plans, in stages, drawn up with a year’s preparation. This time, there is no illusion about winning a war only from the air.“ [1] Especially in the stages I and II of the current war, preparation [+of ethnic skills] and plans, and foremost the integration of the civillian question in combat tactics showed an unpredicted low percentage of civillian casualities. The systems law of the strategical inevitability of civillian casualities is not broken, but its influence was diminished. All structures of IAF and IDF show operational progress in implementing theoretical material. [2] IAF and IDF showed that you can combine successes on the ground with international „laws“.
2. One of the major failures of all stages, with a proportional rise [analytic failure – civillian casualities], is that structures of IAF and IDF were not able to solve the question of an unwilling and unable Hamas regarding the civillians evacuation. Even quite important texts about the Lebanon war [2] hide sometimes behind political themes: „Hide in civillian facilities“. [= Al-Fakhora-case in initial statements of the Army and the propaganda] The truth is that Hezbollah won civillian support in Lebanon not cause of „Multiplier Effects“ in the media, or high casualities under civillians. They won the support with an perfect evacuation, especially in Beirut, and later and still! with a system of assistance. Todays IAF-result [„Israeli aircraft dropped leaflets over the Rafah refugee camp, urging residents to flee because of planned Israeli strikes. The leaflet addressed Rafah residents of a strip of neighborhoods that run parallel to the Egypt border. .. The leaflet included the names of four neighborhoods expected to be hit by the IDF, and instructed locals to immediately leave their homes.“ [3]] of 5000 Rafah citizens beeing „evacuted“ to „temporary emergency centers“ of the UN is no number to disdain. A Hezbollah-style „evacuation“ would bring the possible number up to 20 000. Other combinations: Winter vs Summer, Food-Sanctions since November, destructing UNRWA-capabilities and not bolstering them in front of the war that is „on the table“ -a years's preparation-, besides other problems of combat units [length, drugs, ambition] had to lead into a situation of unnecessary civillian casualities.
3. Al-Fakhora list of violations [Basis: Geneva Convention – Swiss version 08.17.1982]
Hamas violated Art. 37.1 [c], partially Art. 44.3 and Art. 51.7
IDF violated Art. 48.1, Art. 50.3, Art. 51.4, Art. 51.5 and Art. 57.
[Inside – Outside-Question] IDF violated Art. 65 [Warning + Aprropriate time to hide]
Note: Public information and internal and external discussions showed no evidence that can weaken this list of violations. It strongly recommended to install an military-investigation. It is not recommended to follow the demand of UN [international – independent investigation], cause such investigations need years and are fragile -political influence-. It is strongly recommended to create another panel of experts that discuss the influence of the enemies capabilities and willingness to evacuate civillian population.
4. A leadership issue? [Alpher -1] A very popular way in Israel to deal with war-related cases [„mishaps“] is to blame a) the political and b) military leadership. One writer, two examples: „A sovereign government must be able to identify connection between reasons and causes, means and targets - unless it was officially decided to hand over the management of the country to talkback writers.“ +++ „Yet the minimum that we could ask of the official, sane Israel was an expression of deep regret over the death of innocents.“ [4+5] Instead of that, the first two days after the Al-Fakhora-incident show again the demand of a broad political initiative to reconstruct the system of political education in Israel. For years, including several wars and conflict scenarios the political class has „successful“ extracted democratic values. Texts like the Geneva Convention, no matter how hard it is to implement them in any military action, are ultimative achievements of democratic thinking. Nobody and not a single government can guarantee the perfect conversion. But they are a basis to take a rational [and democratic transparent] decision: This is blue and this is white. Reaction of Israelis all over the political spectrum again show a an emotional string of different colours, nobody can be found that takes the responsibility to say: This time its blue. One of the reason for it is the constant feeling that texts like the Geneva Convention are a burden and that any single violation will be multiplied via „foreign“ medias. Another reason is that the political agenda has implemented a special Israeli law that the „war against terror“ is to extract from democratic achievements, mostly based on „possible dangers in the future“ [law of „threat to the existence"]. One can understand a large part of this constant and find the reason in „historic events“ that work in the Israeli soul. But after the military showed a quantum jump in the rigth direction, one has to ask why the rest of Israel seems to take a step into ... the other direction. Emotion – Emotion and even more emotions. Several thousand Israeli citizens in uniform figth their way through Gaza. The rest of Israel figths with the own soul, or the soul of the neighbor. It is strongly recommended to install a panel of experts that analyze the system of political communication. And it is strongly recommended that the EU should demand reforms in that specific part in the future negotiations about a „quasi“-EU-membership-status scheduled for April 2009.

[1] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/07/world/middleeast/07military.html?_r=1
[2] Example: http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/07spring/kreps.htm
[3] http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3652553,00.html
[4] http://www.ynet.co.il/english/articles/0,7340,L-3495412,00.html
[5] http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3652275,00.html